Rules of power: being randomly unfair

The Dictator's Trick: Why Being 'Randomly Unfair' Makes a Leader Sticky

From CGP Grey's video Rules for Rulers, he points out that most governments tends to behave the same way.

His thesis is that government's function is to try serving the least while trying to maximize their support by interest groups -- the "every voter is a tool" hypothesis.

My article attempts to extend this hypothesis that all governments function the same, this time by also revealing one of the unintuitive mechanism that worked irrationally well at commanding power for any ruling systems that deals at a large scale.

The Lie of the Fair Leader

Humans crave a fair leader. We're wired to expect clear rules and proportional rewards.

In theory, a purely fair leader who always rewards competence and punishes mistakes should be the most stable. They earn respect.

But power doesn't just run on respect. It runs on a potent, volatile mix of fear and hope.

A purely fair leader, while noble, eventually becomes predictable -- and predictability is the slow death of power.

When everything is clear and rational, there's no room for the leader to be seen as a divine authority or a whimsical benefactor -- They are just an algorithm.

This is where the concept of "Random Unfairness" comes in.

It's the trick that keeps your boss, social media platforms, and even the stock market in power.

The Three Types of Unfairness

The key to sticky power isn't being a cartoon villain; it's about being mostly fair, but with an element of terrifying, unpredictable chaos.

1. Predictably Unfair (The Neophyte)

This leader is a sure sign of a regime nearing collapse. They practice blatant, transparent favoritism -- nepotism, clear bribery, or promoting based on ideology over competence.

Predictable unfairness allows the rest of the system to calculate the exact cost of compliance.

When the cost (time, effort, integrity) always outweighs the reward (a promotion that will never happen), people stop trying. The system loses control quickly.

TLDR: being blatantly unfair is not stonks.

2. Purely Fair (The Idealist)

This is the noble ideal. Clear metrics, consistent application, no favorites. You get what you earn. This leader commands respect.

Problem? A purely fair leader is vulnerable because they only command respect, not fear or hope.

No one needs to go above and beyond the stated rules. No one fears arbitrary, life-altering punishment.

There is no lottery ticket, no Hail Mary, and therefore, no irrational motivation.

TLDR: being too fair is also not stonks.

3. Randomly Unfair (The Master)

This is the sweet spot of power. The leader is fair about 80-90% of the time, rewarding competence, hard work, and loyalty.

But occasionally, and seemingly at random:

• A loyal, competent employee is suddenly, inexplicably sidelined.
• A relative newcomer gets an outsized, impossible-to-justify bonus or promotion.
• A minor rule-breaker is crushed with a heavy penalty, while a major one is simply given a warning.

The key to this trick is that it must be unpredictable!

Suppose a new intern gets a promotion, and its obvious that is because she is attractive ¹, then you move from a Type-3 ruler to a Type-1 ruler.

Why Type-3 leaders work

The Random Unfairness model works because it simultaneously exploits two deep psychological needs: Hope (The Lottery Ticket) and Fear (The Sword of Damocles).

Lever 1: The Hope Multiplier (The Strivers)

Most people will obey the rules in the expectation of predictable returns. But the random moments of massive, unfair reward add a lotto factor to the system.

Since people can be rewarded unfairly and extravagantly, there is a massive, irrational motivation to work harder, in hopes that they will be the chosen one.

The expected value (EV) of effort might be low, but the potential payoff is life-changing.

This keeps the strivers working, while the ruler unlocks and captures excess value from the skewed EV

Lever 2: The Fear Multiplier (The Pariah)

The flip side is that if people can be rewarded unfairly, they must also fear being punished unfairly.

The Master's Power is Amplified by the Strivers:

• The Unlucky One: When a person is unfairly punished (fired for a tiny mistake, etc.), born in the wrong caste, everyone else sees it and thinks, "It could have been me." This creates profound fear and ensures strict compliance with all rules.

• The Strivers Protest: Those who are still playing the game (the strivers) will not rally to the defense of the unfairly punished. Why? Because the strivers depend on the system. They won't risk their own 'lottery ticket' by protesting the leader's arbitrary decision. ²

• The System Protects Itself: The fear is directed not only at the leader but also at the peers, who are now viewed as potential informers and competitors for the random, extravagant rewards. This is the real genius in thie mechanism.

The Original Random Unfairness (Cain and Abel)

Before we dive into modern examples, let's examine the oldest recorded instance of this power dynamic: the biblical story of Cain and Abel.

Book of Genesis Chapter 4

Both brothers brought offerings to God. Cain, a farmer, brought "some of the fruits of the soil." Abel, a shepherd, brought "fat portions from some of the firstborn of his flock."

God looked with favor on Abel and his offering, but on Cain and his offering he did not look with favor.

The text gives no explanation for this preference. No criteria are mentioned. No scoring system. No performance metrics. Just divine whim.

The Theological Power Play

This isn't just a story about sibling rivalry -- it's a masterclass in establishing divine authority through random unfairness.

God demonstrates that His favor is not earned through merit, effort, or even the quality of the offering.

It's distributed according to His inscrutable will.

And we all know how the story ends

Cain murders Abel, Cain gets punished for it.

But God's response to Cain's murder of Abel reveals the true genius of the random unfairness system -- it creates self-policing behavior.

When Cain asks, "Am I my brother's keeper?" God doesn't answer directly. Instead, He curses Cain to be a "restless wanderer" and marks him so that "no one who finds him will kill him."

In this biblical story, the message is as follows: The system protects itself.

Even when the unfairness becomes unbearable, even when someone rebels against it, the system ensures that the rebellion doesn't spread. Cain is marked, isolated, and made an example.

This is the ultimate power move -- create a system so psychologically compelling that even its victims become its enforcers.

Chapter 4: Random Unfairness in the Real World

Maybe you don't care about biblical settings. Perhaps its just a fictional account of some author from 2000 years ago.

Yet, you still see this in corporate, politics.

This principle isn't just confined to those obvious observation of power. It's an essential element in systems designed to maintain maximum engagement and effort.

1. Social Media Virality

The social media algorithm is the perfect example of a "Randomly Unfair" leader.

The vast majority of creators have an expected value (EV) less than their input, but everyone keeps trying because that random, 0.01% lottery factor exists. The platform maximizes content creation at minimal cost.

2. China's Gaokao System

The Chinese college entrance exam (Gaokao) is perhaps the another extreme example of "Randomly Unfair" in education.

Fairness:

"Gaokao" is widely believed by many Chinese students and parents as the relatively fair approach for the nation to select talents. Supposedly, a uniform anonymously-graded test is a great equalizer that rewards hard work because it gives the disadvantaged a chance at a successful life. It's meritocratic because it’s rough for everyone.

Random Unfairness:

The unfairness lies in the rewards of success and punishment for failing. A higher score correlates with a more prestigious university and a higher-earning job. A lower score basically puts a student at a lower caste for the rest of their lives.

We can lose everything at the gaokao: a bad score in the gaokao means we go to a bad university … This means we get a bad job … and this means we will have a bad life. ³ -- (Cockain)

Even if the results aren't fair, the preparation itself is randomly unfair, as socioeconomic background play a large contribution to it.

China's wealthy often purchase intensive study programs and hire private tutors for their children. Of course, the same happens in America -- SAT tutors certainly give rich kids an advantage the less privileged lack. But the SAT tests academic fundamentals and critical thinking; it’s conceivable that high-school graduates have a decent shot, regardless of preparation. ⁴ The gaokao instead asks questions that favor those who commit massive amounts of time to rigorous drilling and rote memorization. “Arms races” develop between wealthy neighbors to ensure their child is the best prepared.

The Effect:

The system maintains maximum effort from the masses while the privileged escape through alternative paths.

From the same ruling mechanism, Gaokao ends up getting the most support from the lower-class and middle class, despite it being an expensive tax against the same class who supported them, notably the tax in forms of anxiety, social pressure, and snuffed opportunities from creative pursuits.

3. Stock Markets

Why do people overpay for risky, high-volatility assets like highly leveraged options or meme stocks?

Investors know the EV of stock picking is lower, but they are paying for the chance to be the chosen one — the person who bought Tesla at $5, the person who made millions on a single options trade.

The possibility of the random, non-algorithmic reward drives irrational behavior and keeps the entire, massive system of stock picking engaged.

Quantpedia talks about this

4. Playboys & Playgirls

Why do people stay attracted to partners who treat them inconsistently -- hot one moment, cold the next?

Unpredictability makes each positive interaction feel like winning a prize, while the fear of losing that "lottery ticket" keeps simps orbiting and trying harder.

Promiscuous people with lots of options often use this dynamic intentionally to maintain control and keep partners committed despite having other options.

Personally I have enough self respect for this to not happen to me. But even if this won't happen to you, I bet something similar happens in commercial settings.

When you're trying to find jobs, get clients, or hire -- cases where there is multiple demand for a limited supply of people.

Should You Keep Trying?

I don't write this to black pill. Nor do I intend to show off this blueprint to encourage the existence of more Machiavallian powermaxxers.

Rather, I am a person why likes debugging social systems.

Understanding the System

While one can object, negotiate, bargain like Cain, and perhaps even take matters to their own hand to defy the laws, depending on the situation, it is not encouraged to do so.

Obviously, abusive relationships (Random Unfairness intentionally engineered by an individual) should be avoided.

But things like economy, birthright, social media algorithms are emergent and unintentional phenomenons of human super-rationality. Complaining and burning down the game because it doesn't suit you is likely a temptation of weakness.

Here's some practical recommendation:

• Understanding this power dynamic means you can let go of envy and resentment. This is not learned helplessness, rather you discover a point of weakness in any social system that wants to preserve a steady state.

• Be grateful for every good thing. Luck exists. Refusing this and insisting everything is merit-based makes you insensitive to "losers." This turns you into "Abel" -- where resentful Cains try to harm you.

The Practical Reality

The random unfairness system isn't going away. It's not a bug -- it's a feature. It's how power maintains itself across cultures, religions, political systems, markets.

From algorithmic biases, stochastic extrapolations of social media platforms, the pattern remains the same.

The question isn't whether to participate in the system -- you're already in it. The question is how to navigate it with wisdom rather than bitterness.

Recognize the game for what it is, play it with awareness, and most importantly, don't let it poison your relationships with others who are also just trying to survive in the same rigged system.